TY - JOUR
T1 - A multivariable normal tissue complication probability model for predicting radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients in the modern radiotherapy era
AU - Wongwattananard, Siriporn
AU - Prayongrat, Anussara
AU - Srimaneekarn, Natchalee
AU - Hayter, Anthony
AU - Sophonphan, Jiratchaya
AU - Kiatsupaibul, Seksan
AU - Veerabulyarith, Puvarith
AU - Rakvongthai, Yothin
AU - Ritlumlert, Napat
AU - Kitpanit, Sarin
AU - Kannarunimit, Danita
AU - Lertbutsayanukul, Chawalit
AU - Chakkabat, Chakkapong
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japanese Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.
PY - 2024/1/1
Y1 - 2024/1/1
N2 - Radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) is a common long-term complication for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survivors. A model using clinical and dosimetric factors for predicting risk of RHT could suggest a proper dose–volume parameters for the treatment planning in an individual level. We aim to develop a multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for RHT in NPC patients after intensity-modulated radiotherapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy. The model was developed using retrospective clinical data and dose–volume data of the thyroid and pituitary gland based on a standard backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis and was then internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. The final NTCP model consisted of age, pretreatment thyroid-stimulating hormone and mean thyroid dose. The model performance was good with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.749 on an internal (200 patients) and 0.812 on an external (25 patients) validation. The mean thyroid dose at ≤45 Gy was suggested for treatment plan, owing to an RHT incidence of 2% versus 61% in the >45 Gy group.
AB - Radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) is a common long-term complication for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survivors. A model using clinical and dosimetric factors for predicting risk of RHT could suggest a proper dose–volume parameters for the treatment planning in an individual level. We aim to develop a multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for RHT in NPC patients after intensity-modulated radiotherapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy. The model was developed using retrospective clinical data and dose–volume data of the thyroid and pituitary gland based on a standard backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis and was then internally validated using 10-fold cross-validation. The final NTCP model consisted of age, pretreatment thyroid-stimulating hormone and mean thyroid dose. The model performance was good with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.749 on an internal (200 patients) and 0.812 on an external (25 patients) validation. The mean thyroid dose at ≤45 Gy was suggested for treatment plan, owing to an RHT incidence of 2% versus 61% in the >45 Gy group.
KW - nasopharyngeal carcinoma
KW - normal tissue complication probability
KW - predictive model
KW - radiation-induced hypothyroidism
KW - radiotherapy
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85183287414&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/jrr/rrad091
DO - 10.1093/jrr/rrad091
M3 - Article
C2 - 37996086
AN - SCOPUS:85183287414
SN - 0449-3060
VL - 65
SP - 119
EP - 126
JO - Journal of Radiation Research
JF - Journal of Radiation Research
IS - 1
ER -